The response of the climate system to small temperature perturbations in the Aral Sea region



This paper discusses the results of calculations of the climatic river runoff for the subarctic East Siberia region obtained by the linear reservoir model. For the verification of the model, the measurements data as well as the MERRA reanalysis data for the XXth century were used. For the XXIst century, the calculations with the data of the INM, CRNM, GFDL, HadGEM, MIROC5, MPI models of the scenario RCP 8.5 of the Project CMIP5 IPCC were carried out. The results reveal a remarkable increase of the annual runoff for all the models. The annual variability has a positive trend during the XXIst century.